Population Statistic: Read. React. Repeat.
Sunday, November 25, 2021

In case the hype surrounding Black Friday hasn’t stressed the broader impact of this year’s holiday shopping madness, Fortune Magazine frames the make-or-break stakes in terms of a final straw for a teetering U.S. economy:

With consumer spending accounting for about three-quarters of U.S. economic activity, some economists say it is inevitable that the economy will stop growing at some point in the coming year, for the first time since the mild recession of 2001. “Right now, the question is how bad it’s going to get,” said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “The question is one of magnitude.”

And that’s the bright-side view, although the ultra-pessimistic take has a Cassandra-like quality to it:

Others are more direct. Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University who has been predicting the collapse of the housing bubble for years, wrote recently that not only is a recession inevitable, he also sees “the risk of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch leading to a generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before.”

Note that “predicting the collapse of the housing bubble for years” part. In other words, Roubini has been issuing doom-and-gloom housing forecasts every six months, and has dumb-lucked into being right after a string of wrong calls — the “even a broken clock is right twice a day” approach to economic analysis. So I’m thinking he’s not the most accurate barometer.

by Costa Tsiokos, Sun 11/25/2007 07:52:21 PM
Category: Business, Society
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