To quote Tacitus:

Rumor is not always wrong. (Life of Agricola)

Then again, sometimes it is. Maybe.

In the wake of Home Depot’s acquisition of Orlando-based Hughes Supply Inc. for $3.19 billion yesterday, the first thing that came to my mind was the unconfirmed rumor, from Sticks of Fire, about Home Depot buying Cox Lumber. It wouldn’t be the first time the heat of an impending deal fingered the wrong target.

I dropped the news to Tommy at Sticks. He mentioned he’d been getting a few hits regarding Home Depot, Hughes, and Cox. Which sent me off on a search about how long the Home Depot-Hughes rumors had been around, and uncovered a trade journal report from back in November citing the rumblings.

And the kicker: That report quoted one Michael Cox, industry analyst at Piper Jaffray, about the likelihood of Home Depot picking up Hughes.

Put it all together, and it looks like the “Cox” in this whole thing belonged to an investment banker, and not to the local lumber company. Which, if that’s the case, turns out to be a funny anatomy of the way a rumor comes into being. Just think: All this could have been avoided had Neely Tamminga been the Piper wonk quoted.

Of course, Cox might still be in play. So all this meta-analysis might have been for naught. But what the hey.

On a related note: With the Hughes deal, plus Codina Group being scooped up by Florida East Coast Industries earlier this month, I’m waiting for the triple-play in major Florida corporate M&A to drop. I’m betting on Danka going next.