What to make of a surprising recent increase in Russia’s birthrate?

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s population plummeted, and until recently was shrinking at the rate of about 750,000 people a year.

So the Kremlin made kids a priority. A 2007 law expanded maternity leave benefits and payments, and granted mothers educational and other vouchers worth $10,650 for a second child and any thereafter. More important, perhaps, Russia’s surging economy has made it possible for young couples to plan for their future.

The population decline hasn’t halted, and demographers warn it could plummet again. But today births are on the rise, from 1.4 million in 2006 to 1.6 million in 2007 — their highest level in 15 years.

The governmental social engineering isn’t unique — tax breaks that encourage citizens to settle down and start multiplying have been implemented for decades in Europe and America, particularly after the World Wars. It would have been more surprising if Moscow didn’t take steps to reverse the decline.

While the Russian state isn’t out of the wood yet, this is a sign that its predicted dwindling-away isn’t a fait accompli. Even Parag Khanna’s vision of a coming global trilateralism, made up of China-Europe-United States with Russia and India relegated to also-rans, might need revision.