Population Statistic: Read. React. Repeat.
Sunday, July 30, 2006

Looks like now is the right time for me to spring for a condominium: The decompressing national housing market is sending loads of high-flying condo projects begging, including kill-offs of long-planned projects.

The set of dominos that are tumbling have a familiar look:

[McCabe Research and Consulting CEO Jack] McCabe considers the condo market, especially the luxury end, at risk of a crash. Over the next few years, he sees prices falling by double-digit percentages.

The luxury condo surplus is to blame. McCabe said about 25,000 condos are under construction in Miami-Dade County, with two-thirds costing $700,000 or higher; another 25,000 units have gotten building permits and 50,000 have been announced for future construction.

McCabe said the median household income in the county qualifies local buyers for a $225,000 home, so the luxury units are targeted mainly toward affluent, out-of-state buyers.

Meanwhile, speculators have driven up prices by flipping units, he said. But they’re now leaving the market — driving down demand — and putting up for sale properties they own, adding to the glut.

And this inflated market — in many cases, the real-estate equivalent of vaporware — was sustained solely by the prolonged sellers’ market over the past several years. This is precisely why a housing slowdown won’t have a much-hoped-for soft landing — the speculation-driven luxury market overexpanded, leaving it dangerously exposed. Their hard times aren’t going to be restricted to just them; the entire construction and development sector’s going to feel the ripple effect.

As that rolls in, there are deals to be had:

[McCabe] said desperate developers with finished condos are offering plenty of incentives in South Florida.

Freebies range from one year’s free mortgage to the use of a yacht or upgraded kitchen packages. McCabe thinks some developers might even sell units at cost if condo sales continue to weaken.

Maybe a relocation to Miami is in order. Except that I love New York so much right now. Besides, the bubble-pop will hit Manhattan soon enough.

by Costa Tsiokos, Sun 07/30/2006 07:59:25 PM
Category: Business, Society
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