The newly-emergent bipartisan coalition of 14 Senators that averted a filibuster showdown has captured the imagination of Beltway observers. Some think this centrist grouping will serve as a powerful counterbalance to the right-leaning White House, while others feel it’s far too fragile to survive past the next few months.

A lot of factors come into play. A second-term Presidency is, in a lot of ways, a lame duck from day one. Congress tends to assert itself in such an environment. Party loyalty doesn’t disappear, but a longer view takes precedent: Senators and Representatives will be in Washington a lot longer than the current President.

On the other hand, without a specific crisis situation to address, it’s hard to find much to bind these politicos. They might have been emboldened enough to prompt action on the current stem-cell bill, but how many hot-button issues can they tick up before running out of political capital? Beyond that, it’s hard to coalesce around a moderate agenda; extreme views inspires a lot more cohesion among faithful.